The new round of commodity price increases, with no counterpart to exchange rate appreciation, and the prospect of extending emergency aid triggered a wave of revisions to inflation this year, with an increase in the number of bets higher than the center of the target ( 3, 75%), even with the high interest scenario.

The nefarious and atypical combination for inflation, rising commodities and depreciated exchange rate, also seen in the second half of 2020, already has an effect on wholesale prices, which register strong monthly increases. In the General Price Index – 10 (IGP – 10) in February, the increase was 2, 97%, accumulating 28 , 17% in 12 months. And the bad news keeps coming, like the increase in 10, 2% of gasoline in refineries by Petrobras in last Friday.

In the assessment of economists heard by Estadão, the transfer of this cost pressure must be inevitable, a hypothesis that gains strength considering that the renewal of emergency aid may favor transfer of costs, mainly in food. )